Engineering analysis
Defect Risk
Trace each risk back to material, geometry, process and equipment variables.
OVERALL PROCESS RISK
LOW
3.8% dominant riskCRACK RISK
3.8%
-54% vs waterDISTORTION
0.052 mm
≤ 0.08 mmRisk register
Candidate B · current configuration
| Defect | Probability | Level | Primary drivers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cracking | 3.8% | Low | Section ratio + quench severity |
| Distortion | 6.2% | Low | Geometry transition + thermal gradient |
| Soft spot | 2.1% | Low | Core cooling margin acceptable |
| Grain growth | 4.0% | Low | Austenitize window controlled |
| Decarburization | 8.8% | Medium | Atmosphere monitoring required |
Top sensitivity
Quench severityHigh
Section ratioHigh
Transfer delayMedium
AtmosphereMedium
Mitigation
Keep quench bath at 40°C ± 3°C
Bath temperature drift changes cooling severity and is the most sensitive controllable parameter in the current route.